Netflix and no chill

The GIST: On Friday, Netflix announced it will acquire the streaming and studio divisions of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), now separated under the Warner Brothers (WB) brand, in a $82.7B deal. But in dramatic fashion, Paramount Skydance threatened to finish what it started as it launched a $108.4B hostile bid for the entire company to compete with what was considered a done deal. Let’s dive in.

The acquisition: Netflix announced it was acquiring all WB IP, including its film and streaming studios and its HBO properties. That means classics like The Sopranos would be available on Netflix, as well as content from the DC Universe. However, Paramount Skydance — which has unsuccessfully bid for WBD thrice — made an aggressive play to outbid Netflix after the buzzer.

• Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison has gone straight to WBD shareholders with an all-cash offer of $30 per share, which comes out to $108.4B for the whole enchilada. And apparently, $24B of that is sourced from three sovereign wealth funds: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

The impact: Though Netflix is getting all HBO Max shows, sports content previously streamed on HBO Max, such as Unrivaled, isn’t expected to reach Netflix since sports rights remain with Discovery Global. If the Netflix deal goes through, it’s estimated shared viewership would comprise about 21% of streaming viewing compared to a combined 8% in a Paramount–WBD merger.

• Though Netflix is building its sports profile, it's been one-off live events rather than full seasons, meaning it’s missing out on padding its sports portfolio. Thanks to WBD’s internal split, it’s expected that most TNT sports media deals, including those for the College Football Playoffs and men’s March Madness will remain with Discovery Global.

• However, if Ellison’s bid wins, it is for the entire company, resulting in sports content likely migrating to CBS and Paramount+.

Zooming out: Under the Trump administration, companies are going wild with previously impossible mergers, although the president opposes Netflix’s takeover since it doesn’t favor his friend. While this is economically concerning, for women’s sports teams that have inked deals with smaller networks that are being swallowed up by larger ones, they can reach a wider audience.

• For the changeups at Ion and NBC/Versant, women’s sports leagues have been guaranteed more widespread coverage. But if leagues like Unrivaled lose their ability to stream, Discovery Global could lose its edge in sports as cable withers. For the sake of sports viewership, a Paramount Skydance deal would be better for leagues under contract with WBD. Watch this space.

The GIST: Last week, the Frauen Bundesliga — Germany’s 14-club professional women’s soccer league — made the surprising decision to split from the Deutscher Fußball-Bund (DFB), the nation’s governing body for the sport.

• While Frauen Bundesliga teams initially planned to separate and professionalize the way the NWSL and the UK’s Women’s Super League (WSL) have done, the decision to abruptly sever ties sets the course for an uncharted path in women’s pro soccer, with unknown implications for the brands and media outlets that are banking on the league. Making a play.

The context: Historically, governing bodies have helped manage nascent sports leagues, especially women’s ones. The NWSL was created, owned, and operated by U.S. Soccer from 2012 to 2020, largely because previous independent pro women’s soccer leagues weren’t sustainable, while the WSL recently shifted away from the Football Association’s jurisdiction.

• Such oversight offers early stability, but in women’s soccer’s growth era, leagues can better capitalize on new opportunities. Since 2020, the NWSL has commanded more in expansion fees ($400M in just the last three years), media rights value ($240M), and sponsorship revenue ( $75M in 2024), while the WSL nabbed its own historic rights deal in 2024.

The league: Founded in 1990, the Frauen Bundesliga has earned prestige as one of Europe’s top leagues and is competitive in international tournaments. Yet the market is relatively untapped compared to the UK, Spain, and France.

• However, popular teams like FC Bayern Women have shown potential, drawing a record 57.7K fans in September. And a recent report showed half of German soccer fans follow the women’s and men’s game, with 19M showing particular interest on the women’s side.

• This makes the latest news all the more confusing: One month after the DFB promised a $117M investment to develop the new league, clubs now want to form their own association, saying the DFB backtracked on agreed-upon deal points. Though clearly the German market is ripe for commercialization, it’s still bold to back away from institutional support.

The brand impact: It remains to be seen how this is going to go for the Frauen Bundesliga, which is a compelling force in the European soccer hierarchy. Still, this is a tough transition, one U.S. and UK leagues pulled off with an institutional assist — and it may put the league’s existing commercial partnerships up in the air.

• Google Pixel is the league’s naming rights sponsor through 2027, while UK–based sports streamer DAZN has exclusive rights to air in five key markets. But maybe clubs will be fine on their own: FC Bayern Women already worked out a deal with insurance giant Allianz and a development partnership with Liga MX Femenil. Auf geht’s!