NFL Week 14: One pick to rule them all

Remember a few weeks ago in Week 10 when the underdogs were having their moment? Well, there’s a reason they say nothing lasts forever.

• In last Sunday’s games, the favorites went almost undefeated, going 12-1-1 (with that lone loss belonging to the Kansas City Chiefs).

• The favorites also notably went 10-4 against the spread (ATS), meaning 10 teams won by more points than bookmakers were predicting, including the 3-point favorite Minnesota Vikings beating the NY Jets by 5.

Meanwhile, Week 13 proved decidedly unlucky for my picks, as I went 1-3 to bring my total record to 8-11.

• The most frustrating loss was a bad beat (losing a bet when it looks like a guaranteed winner) on the NY Giants vs. Washington Commanders game total to be over 40.5 points.

• When the game headed into overtime tied at 20-20, all I needed was a point for the bet to win. Instead, neither team scored and the game ended in a tie with…40 total points. Pain.

And let my record be proof that however enticing parlay bets (combining two or more bets for a bigger payout)are, they’re just as hard to win. We can’t all be this guy.

• So this week, I’m going all in with just one pick. All or nothing.

And that honor belongs to the Cincinnati Bengals.

• Coming off of a massive 27–24 win over Kansas City last week and riding a four-game win-streak, I’m looking at Bengals quarterback Joe “Cool” Burrow to ice out Deshaun Watson (yuck) and the Cleveland Browns and win by 6 or more points to cover the spread (-5.5). Plus, it seems about time to break this curse.

If I was a professional gambler which, notably, I most certainly am not, I might call this pick a lock (a bet considered to be a sure thing). But don’t be fooled, the most exciting part of sports is that nothing is ever a lock, so gamble responsibly.