The GIST: Turnovers were the main character in Week 3 — just ask LA Rams QB Matthew Stafford, whose fourth-quarter pick-six flipped this week’s Sunday Night Football game on its head. That costly interception (INT) was the first domino in the eventual Rams loss.
- The turn of events left us wondering: What’s really in a turnover? And how much do they impact the bottom line of winning football games? Let’s find out.
🔬 Breaking down the turnover: It’s no secret that turnovers are problematic — scoring (and winning) is easier when your team possesses the ball. Though turnovers regularly feature on NFL Red Zone, they don’t happen all that often. Less than 1% of run plays end in a lost fumble, and just 3% of passing plays result in an INT. Turnovers are a statistical anomaly.
- Forty-six percent of these possession changes can be credited to player talent (like Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker TJ Watt’s penchant for strip sacks), while the other 54% are due to luck (think a tipped INT, like this one from Week 3).
➕ Turnover differential is a BFD: However a turnover is generated, the numbers indicate that they are in fact game-changers. According to a 2014 study out of Harvard, a +1 turnover differential (i.e., forcing one more turnover than your opponent) translates to a 69.6% win rate. That’s an even better win rate than home-field advantage, which lands at 57.2%.
- As the differential increases, so does the winning percentage. A +3 turnover differential skyrockets a team’s win rate to 90.7%.
- This season’s best example? The Las Vegas Raiders, who boast an impressive +5 turnover differential through three weeks and a perfect 3-0 record. After Week 3 last season, they were 1-2 with a minus-one differential. Case in point.
👀 A data outlier: The Buffalo Bills turned the ball over five times in their 24–16 Sunday win over the LA Chargers, forcing just one turnover themselves. That’s a nausea-inducing +4 differential for the Chargers, placing LA’s win rate at 96.9%. In fact, the last time Buffalo won a game after committing five or more turnovers was back in 1997.
- Bills QB Josh Allen did what he does best (author a comeback), but one of the Chargers’ fatal mistakes was a fourth-quarter red-zone INT thrown by QB Justin Herbert. It all comes back to
meatball subs turnovers.
